Air Cargo Demand Starts 2026 on a Strong Note
The global air cargo market began 2026 with solid momentum, posting another month of year-on-year growth despite mounting geopolitical and trade uncertainties. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), total demand — measured in cargo tonne kilometres (CTK) — rose by 5.6% in January compared to the same month in 2025. The performance reflects continued resilience in global supply chains, even as the industry faces potential headwinds in the months ahead.
While overall growth remained healthy, regional performance diverged significantly, highlighting an increasingly polarised market landscape.
Capacity Growth Slows Despite Record January Levels
Alongside demand expansion, air cargo capacity — measured in available cargo tonne kilometres (ACTK) — increased by 3.6% year-on-year in January. Although this represented the highest January ACTK volume ever recorded, the pace of capacity growth has begun to moderate.
IATA noted that Asia-Pacific capacity reached a historic high in January but registered its weakest growth rate for the month since 2020. This trend suggests early signs of capacity fatigue, as airlines balance network expansion with softening growth in certain markets.
The slower pace of capacity expansion, combined with continued demand growth, may help support yields in the near term. However, regional imbalances remain a defining feature of the current market environment.
Regional Performance Shows Clear Divergence
January’s results reveal sharp contrasts across global regions. African airlines led the market with an impressive 18.2% year-on-year increase in demand — the strongest growth among all regions — extending a streak of double-digit gains. Capacity in Africa rose by 6.5%, reflecting steady network expansion.
Middle Eastern carriers also performed strongly, recording a 9.3% rise in demand. Capacity grew by 9.9%, the fastest capacity increase globally, underscoring the region’s continued investment in cargo infrastructure and hub connectivity.
Asia-Pacific airlines reported a 7.8% increase in demand, supported by export activity and manufacturing recovery. Capacity rose more modestly at 3.3%, indicating disciplined growth strategies amid evolving trade patterns.
European carriers posted a 6.9% demand increase, with capacity expanding by 4.9%. The region continues to benefit from strengthening trade flows, particularly along the Europe–Asia corridor.
In contrast, the Americas lagged behind. North American carriers experienced a 0.5% year-on-year decline in demand, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. North America was also the only region to report a capacity decrease, down 0.2%. Meanwhile, Latin American and Caribbean airlines recorded a 2% drop in demand — the weakest regional performance overall — although capacity increased by 2.3%.
These figures illustrate a clear geographic divide, with growth concentrated in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe, while the Americas face ongoing pressure.
Trade Lanes: Europe–Asia Leads the Way
Trade corridor analysis further highlights the uneven nature of global cargo flows. Airfreight volumes expanded across most major trade lanes in January, with one notable exception: the Asia–North America route, which saw a slight 0.6% year-on-year decline.
By contrast, the Europe–Asia trade lane continued its remarkable expansion, posting a 15.2% year-on-year increase in January. This marks 35 consecutive months of growth along the corridor, reinforcing its position as one of the most dynamic and resilient air cargo markets globally.
The sustained strength of the Europe–Asia route reflects recovering industrial demand, supply chain diversification, and stable trade ties between the two regions.
Positive Economic Indicators Support the Market
Despite geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, several macroeconomic indicators point to a relatively healthy trade environment.
Global manufacturing sentiment improved in January, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 51.8 — above the 50-point threshold that signals expansion. This represents the highest reading in more than 18 months, suggesting renewed confidence in industrial output.
The PMI for new export orders reached 49.9, just below expansion territory but at its strongest level in 10 months. While not yet fully in growth mode, the indicator suggests stabilisation and cautious optimism among exporters.
Additionally, global goods trade expanded by 4.9% year-on-year in December 2025, providing a supportive backdrop for air cargo demand entering the new year. Meanwhile, jet fuel prices declined by 6.5% compared to January 2025, offering some cost relief for airlines operating in a competitive environment.
Industry Faces Emerging Risks
Despite the encouraging start to the year, industry leaders warn that significant risks remain. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy continues to create volatility in global trade flows. Furthermore, renewed hostilities in the Middle East pose additional threats to supply chain stability and route planning.
These geopolitical and policy-related challenges could disrupt freight corridors, affect capacity allocation, and dampen business confidence in key markets.
As a result, while the first month of 2026 delivered solid growth, the resilience of the air cargo sector will likely be tested in the coming months. The industry’s ability to adapt to shifting trade dynamics, manage capacity prudently, and navigate geopolitical risks will determine whether current growth momentum can be sustained.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism for 2026
In summary, January 2026 demonstrated that air cargo remains a vital and adaptable component of global trade. Strong performances in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe helped offset weaknesses in the Americas, resulting in a solid overall expansion.
However, the increasingly polarised regional landscape and emerging geopolitical pressures suggest that growth may not be evenly distributed throughout the year. With capacity growth moderating and trade indicators showing tentative improvement, the industry enters 2026 with cautious optimism — aware that resilience will be key in navigating the evolving global environment.
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